先知之道
The Imperative of Foreknowledge
孫子曰:凡興師十萬,出征千里,百姓之費,公家之奉,日費千金,內外騷動,怠于道路,不得操事者,七十萬家。相守數年,以爭一日之勝,而愛爵祿百金,不知敵之情者,不仁之至也,非人之將也,非主之佐也,非勝之主也。故明君賢將,所以動而勝人,成功出於眾者,先知也。先知者,不可取於鬼神,不可象於事,不可驗於度,必取於人,知敵之情者也。
Master Sun said: When you raise an army of a hundred thousand and march a thousand li, the cost to the common people and the expenditure of the state treasury run to a thousand gold pieces a day. There is turmoil at home and abroad, men exhausted on the roads, and seven hundred thousand households unable to pursue their livelihoods.
To hold this stalemate for years, contending for victory in a single day, and yet begrudge the outlay of ranks, emoluments, and a hundred pieces of gold — thereby remaining ignorant of the enemy's situation — this is the height of inhumanity. Such a man is no one's general, no ruler's support, and no master of victory.
The reason wise sovereigns and able generals move and conquer, achieving success beyond the reach of ordinary men, is foreknowledge. Foreknowledge cannot be extracted from ghosts and spirits. It cannot be inferred from analogies. It cannot be verified by celestial calculations. It must be obtained from men — those who know the enemy's situation.
Notes
The figure of 700,000 households disrupted by an army of 100,000 reflects the enormous logistical burden of ancient warfare. Commentators estimate a ratio of roughly 7:1 between support population and field troops, accounting for conscript labour, supply transport, and lost agricultural production.
不仁之至也 ('the height of inhumanity'): Sunzi inverts the conventional moral framing. Spending money on espionage is not immoral — refusing to spend on intelligence, and thereby sacrificing armies through ignorance, is the truly inhumane act. This is a characteristic Sunzi move: redefining virtue in strategic terms.
不可取於鬼神,不可象於事,不可驗於度: Three methods of divination are rejected. 鬼神 refers to spiritual consultation and oracle practices; 象於事 means reasoning by analogy from past events; 驗於度 means verification through astronomical or mathematical calculations. Sunzi insists that only human intelligence — spies — can reveal the enemy's true condition.
